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Analysis:Bombs,Maiduguri and the Military Question
By Danlami
Nmodu Newsdiaryonline
Sat July 16,2011
Sheriff:In the eye of the storm
It is a sad irony that even the emergence
of Borno elders on the scene
In Maiduguri has not brought an end to the bombings that have
been rocking the ancient city.Two more bombs went off yesterday
killing and maiming in the name of Boko Haram sect.And there
were reprisal attacks by the soldiers
who now seem repeatedly under attack in Maiduguri.It is
sad that soldiers deployed to keep the peace have also become an
issue in the complex conflict.Many had thought with the
emergence of the elders at least some sort of sanity would be
brought to the city.Alas that is not the case so far.
In fact,
the city has become the most unsafe abode in Nigeria today. And
this has led to many state governments arranging the evacuation
of their citizens.It is strange that those doing this damage to
the state and Maiduguri in
particular are not thinking of the long term impact on the
economy of the state .A major dent has been done by these
attacks on the economic stability of Borno as an
investment
destination .The recent
attacks on banks will simply complicate the situation even
further as the long term economic
impact will certainly be disastrous.
The tragedy in Maiduguri is not helped by
insinuations that the beginning and the eventual escalation of
the Boko Haram insurgency have their roots the political battle
for the turf. Though this has been repeatedly denied, the hints
remain alive. There is especially
a claim in some
quarters that some powers in the presidency are out to settle
scores with the ex Governor Ali Modu Sheriff.But no one has
produced any concrete evidence to justify this claim,neither has
there been any reason for this assertion other than
to say “we know people
are after Sheriff’’.No one
can also explain
how being after Sheriff
has led to the escalation of the bombings in Maiduguri yet.But a
Boko Haram spokesman
recently raised the ante when he told reporters that Ado Rock is
their ultimate target.
Yet the elders who came out to speak
vehemently against the
military in Maiduguri
simply wanted
soldiers out because they
are allegedly killing youths just for being young in the
state.The elders also accuse the military of raping
women in the cause of their peace enforcement .But the
JTF command too has said all the accusations are lies concocted
by sponsors and sympathizers of the Boko Haram
Beyond the war of words however, military
experts have been examining
the unfolding situation. And
such experts who spoke
with
Newsdiaryonline
have viewed the two sides’ positions as reprehensible.One
military source questioned the logic of the elders calling for
the withdrawal of soldiers. “If you withdraw the soldiers now,
what do you replace them with?’’ In the view of this expert on
military affairs, it will be a mistake to withdraw soldiers now.
This view appears to be what General Owoye
Azazi shares as the national security adviser said troops will
not be withdrawn now.His view may come as a welcome development
to those who feel it is very risky to keep the soldiers off
the street of Maiduguri
in the wake of mindless bombings by the radical sect. Yet the
point must not be lost that even Boko Haram has insisted that
soldiers should be withdrawn from the streets of Maiduguri as a
pre-condition for
dialogue.The similar position taken by the group of Borno elders
and Boko Haram(insisting of military withdrawal) is what may
have fuelled the suspicion by the JTF whose authorities have now
alleged that the elders are backing the violent sect.This
charge by the JTF
may unfortunately in
deed further complicate the situation in the couple of days and
weeks ahead. Maiduguri,for now remains a hopeless cauldron.
Yet military experts believe that the JTF
is not without blame in its operations so far.There appears to
have been the use of maximum force in the combat against Boko
Haram in Maiduguri.That is why one military source said that
rather than ask the soldiers to be withdrawn , it is more
appropriate to insist that soldiers are urged to stick the rules
of such engagements
and exercise minimum
force when necessary.
All these talks about ‘minimum force’
may be wishful thinking
if Boko Harm continues to bomb and maim innocent citizens.Also
the recent history of
Nigeria’s military has revealed that communities that attack
soldiers always pay a
heavy price for such indiscretion as soldiers always fight back
ruthlessly .Odi and Zaki Biam fell to the military.The battle
against Niger Delta militants which led to the crushing of
settlements in the oil rich Niger Delta remain green in the
people’s memory. Communities in Maiduguri risk such ruthless
military reprisal and that appears to be the bone of contention
between the elders and the JTF.Sadly the scenario looks grim.
Perhaps the way to end the military
operation would be to urge the elders to intervene and urge the
Boko Haram in practical terms to
sheath their swords now so that Maiduguri will regains its hope
of genuine renewal
again.
Ohaneze Ndigbo however suggested the
declaration of a state of emergency in Borno .But given the
peculiar nature of this Boko Haram insurgency
which seems to have
produced ripple explosions in other states and the federal
capital territory, it remains unclear how a state of emergence
in Borno will end the crisis.It would appear that only a
political solution anchored on genuine dialogue may end the
strange bloodletting.
Meeting with the group must come after
genuine intelligence on who the real Boko Haram insurgents
are.Poor intelligence especially within Maiduguri seems to be at
the centre of the growing helplessness by the government.It
appears there has not been any genuine infiltration of the sect
yet to gather genuine intelligence about who they are and what
they truly want.That is why the group appears to have the upper
hand by attacking without let ,leaving the JTF to response after
being fired upon or after Boko Haram targets have been
attacked.Talking to the wrong insurgents
may worsen rather than
solve the problem.
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