Shock… as Emirs Support Jonathan

There are strong indications that Northern emirs and chiefs led by Sultan of Sokoto have endorsed President Jonathan for the 2011 presidential race in what is believed to  their bid to stop IBB,Buhari,Gusau,Atiku and  others from clinching the plum job. A Northern president is said not to be in their interest.But there is anger  in the region over the unfolding events

BY DANLAMI NMODU

It is a new twist that is guaranteed to ‘shock and awe’. In fact many are equally angry about the new turn of events and the anger is said to be welling up to boiling point.Uptill now, some northern politicians are insisting that the 2011 presidential race  is for the north.In plain terms, they say  the Peoples Democratic Party ,PDP had zoned the presidency to the North , the zone must produce the president in 2011.In fact those who wanted to ensure the agreement was honoured reportedly pressurized Vincent Ogbulafor who was then PDP chairman to insist that the north will produce the president in 2011.So far the zoning formula has not been changed.And that is why Northern aspirants like Generals Aliyu Gusau, Ibrahim Babangida  and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar are hopeful. There are  some PDP governors secretly eyeing the presidency from the North .Other aspirants from other parties include  General Muhammadu Buhari, Governor Ibrahim Shakarau of Kano state .

But there are clear signs that the zoning plan may have been unofficially set aside by some influential power brokers who are determined to ensure that their enlightened self interest supercedes the PDP calculation.Notwithstanding the strident calls for him not to run in next year’s general polls against the backdrop of the zoning principle of his party, President   Goodluck Jonathan may have made up his mind to contest soon after he was sworn in as substantive president.There are those who say the president was actually encouraged and persuaded to join the race. Insider Weekly learnt that the President has been  emboldened   by the encouraging words of Northern traditional rulers under the leadership of the Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar.

Investigations by the magazine revealed that soon after the demise of the former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, northern monarchs met in Sokoto at the behest of the very influential spiritual leader. During the meeting, the traditional rulers took a deep look at the pressing issues confronting them and the country.The royal fathers discussed extensively the political fate of the region which they think has been  treated unfairly since the dawn of democracy in 1999.

It was at that meeting that most of them agreed to dispatch the Etsu Nupe, Yahaya Abubakar, to the Presidency through an intermediary to convey their message to President Jonathan.The entire resolutions have been hitherto kept as  closely guarded secrets  among the emirs.

Sources however revealed that the traditional rulers were   unanimous in giving President Jonathan the nod to contest next year’s election.A source said the Northern royal fathers have simply told Jonathan the he is free to run for president in 2011.As the emirs’ delegation delivered the message ,the intermediary who was to pass it on the president  it was said to have been perhaps ‘pleasantly shocked’ at some of the views expressed by the royal fathers. Said a source ``as  a matter of fact, the emissary stunned the intermediary when he said  that those who sent him   don’t have a preferred candidate to support among the three leading northerners(Atiku ,Buhari and IBB) jostling for the nation’s plum job.’’ Sources believe  this message from Northern emirs has been delivered to the President. But the general feeling in the north seems to support the zoning formula and that is why  everyone involved in this new twist is being careful about how to execute the presidential ambition  of the president Jonathan. There is the fear that any sudden announcement now may lead to some backlash in the North .In fact Atiku Abubakar recently told the BBC Jonathan’s 2011  project may not be good for the political health of the country.

Truth is that among the  leading presidential hopefuls from the north angling to be President in 2011 ,two time Presidential Candidate of the All Nigeria People Party (ANPP) Muhammadu Buhari, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Military President Ibrahim Babangida are the most promising in the view of their supporters. But The royal fathers reportedly expressed reservations about the threesome preferring a new face.A source said the emirs are very unhappy that the gladiators from the north are the same old faces who they think may not be in the interest of the country.It is this reasoning that is believed to have influenced the thinking of the traditional rulers who now  have decided  to support Jonathan should he decide to disregard the zoning principle of the ruling People Democratic Party (PDP).

Sources  said the royal fathers may have settled for Jonathan because of what they consider as their own enlightened self interest.They are of the view that they may be able to wield a lot of influence under a president from the southern part of the country. They seem to be worried that Presidents from the North do not give them their due regard. A source said ``every now and then if the Sultan for instance calls Jonathan, he picks the call and gets  a swift response and the issues he raised are quickly attended to.The same thing happens when lesser mortals who  are royal fathers of lesser status than the sultan call. But you know that these rulers  won’t get the same treatment from people like Buhari and others.There is also the  question of seniority among these retired  members of the armed forces.Some of the royal fathers are  junior  to these generals who want to be president and the royal fathers who are retired officers too fear that they may not be able to wield as much influence under any of the Northern generals who want o be president in 2011’’

But the  secret plot to draft Jonathan from the North may not be restricted to the royal fathers alone.Insider Weekly has learnt that some very influential women from the North  have been lobbying Patience Jonathan and they have been telling her to convince her husband to stand firm and run for president in2011.It was further revealed that some of the northern women  who are  wives of some influential northerners are the ones being used to work on Patience. They (northern  wives) are said to have become a regular part of Patience’s itinerary now as their influential husbands have facilitated access to the First Lady.Some of them are believed to either have travelled with her in her latest trip to Dubai or they linked up with her in Dubai and Lebanon  in order to show her the way. Discussions and meetings are said to be going on with Patience who is said to have come under pressure to convince her husband to seize this opportunity and vie for election in 2011.Insiders also revealed that it was this calculation towards a hitch-free election and success for Jonathan in 2011 that led to the appointment of Namadi Sambo as the new vice president. Sambo was chosen ahead of other renowned political heavy weights.Jonathan’s Northern strategists were said to have reasoned that Sambo is not yet a political heavy weight ;therefore he may not pose any threat to Jonathan when push comes to shove in the lead up to the 2011 polls.

What the foregoing show is that , it is well  known  among insiders that Jonathan will run.It is even getting clearer that aside from his South-South supporters who want him to run, some northerners now strangely see Jonathan as their best bet,much to the shock of some northerners who feel this development will shortchange the zone .The hurdle so far is  how to get the PDP to jettison the zoning former which favours the North in 2011.The president’s handlers seem determined to solve this problem and that is why all the people in the party’s exco opposed to the zoning formula are being weeded out. The major casualty is Vincent Ogbulafor who had insisted on the zoning formula.

The politics of the 2011 race has kept the party boiling.Last week the NWC and BoT meeting could not hold because of the failure to resolve who Ogbulafor’s succeesor would be.The former PDP chairman must be livid with  rage  now.He has seen how the governors ditched him in order to secure a grip on the president and get one of their own to emerge as vice president.

Sources said the PDP Reform group may have finally nailed the coffin of Ogbulafor’s PDP chairmanship. Initially the reform group seemed to have the backing of someone in the presidency, not Jonathan directly. But all that support was cut off after PDP governors told Jonathan that they would decamp en masse to another party if the reform group’s activities were not checked.It was this crisis that delayed the NEC meeting of PDP not long ago .The gridlock was resolved after the governors offered to dump Ogbulafor .They also told the president that the only way they could continue to support him was for him to pick one of their men as veepee.Jonathan caved in because he knows he would need them in 2011.Having given in to the governors, the reform group became of lesser value to the group’s main backer in the presidency  .That is why the enthusiasm is waning now. For Jonathan, 2011 is the main project and anything to stop it  ,it seems must be crushed.

That battle for the heart and soul of the party is known to be at the centre of the lingering confusion within .The choice of a new chairman has been delayed because care appears to be taken to ensure the right political calculations and to ensure a man who will do the job emerges.Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is said to be throwing his weight around in order to decide who succeeds Ogbulafor and this development seems to have brought many interests in the party on collision course.The man who emerges is expected to be sympathetic to Jonathan’s calculations.

Watchers of the few weeks old Presidency of Jonathan say it is no longer an ‘if’ but it is a definite ‘when’  he will declare his presidential interest. Just a few days ago his aide on national Assembly matters   Dr. Cairo Ojougboh emphatically declared that President Jonathan will run in the up coming general elections. He was later to swiftly on that same day retrace his steps following public knocks especially from the north  against the idea. Analysts are now certain the man will contest ,much to the chagrin  of the Chairman and Members of the Presidential Advisory Committee(PAC)led by the fearless and no nonsense General Yakubu Danjuma (rtd).

Yakubu pointedly according to reports told Jonathan that he and his team will resign should he make a run for the presidency. PAC led Danjuma was inaugurated at the height of late Yar’Adua illness in February. It is peopled by time-tested technocrats with iron clad reputation. Among the members are Prof. Ben Nwabueze, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, Ambassador G. B. Preware, Prof. Bartholomew Nnaji, Mr. Basil Omiyi, Alhaji M. D. Yusufu, Muhammed Hayatuddeen, former Chief Justice Salihu Alfa Belgore, former Deputy House Speaker Chibudom Nwuche, Dr. Bamanga Tukur, Alhaji Isma’ila Isa, Prof. Shehu Sa'id Sarinwata, Dr. Simon C. Okolo and Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa. Other members are Mr. Fola Adeola, Mallam Abubakar Gimba, Mr. Kase Lawal, Mrs. Mobola Johnson, Hajiya Halita Aliyu, Alhaji Magaji Danbatta, Prof. Buba G. Bajoga, Dr. Sally Bolujoko, Mrs. Maryam Uwais and Chief Kanu Agabi. The Permanent Secretary (Special Duties) in SGF's Office is the council's secretary. Fola Adeola, Mallam Abubakar Gimba, Mr. Kase Lawal, Mrs. Mobola Johnson, Hajiya Halita Aliyu, Alhaji Magaji Danbatta, Prof. Buba G. Bajoga, Dr. Sally Bolujoko, Mrs. Maryam Uwais   and Chief Kanu Agabi. The Permanent Secretary (Special Duties) in SGF's Office is the council's secretary.

The PAC members’ contention was that wading into the race will severely affect Jonathan's reputation as an unbiased umpire in the elections and will make it impossible for him to make strides in the socio-economic sphere during the limited time he has in office.

Sources told this Magazine that the council members unanimously mandated their chairman, General Danjuma, to raise the matter with Jonathan. They said Danjuma should advise him to resist pressure from former President Olusegun Obasanjo as well as from some South-South community leaders and some members of his new cabinet to drag him into the 2011 presidential contest.

Indications to the effect that Jonathan will not heed the advise not to run emerged when he completely side stepped the issue of 2011 when Danjuma submitted the interim report of his Committee.Instead Jonathan thanked the council for a job well done and promised to ensure the implementation of at least 60 percent of the recommendations. The council's six committees had each made a detailed presentation with short, medium and long term measures that they advised the Jonathan administration to focus on between now and May next year, when its tenure ends.

With the tacit support of northern traditional rulers for Jonathan to contest he may have scaled a major hurdle.Sources revealed that the royal fathers’ endorsement of Jonathan was the culmination of weeks of persistent lobby and pressure mounted by former president, Obasanjo to clear the course for Jonathan. The foxy retired General from Ota in 2007, Obasanjo as out-going president following the collapse of the third term agenda paired late Yar’adua and Jonathan as President and Vice Presidential candidates. Originally, it was Peter Odili that he wanted as Yar’Adua’s running mate but the staunch resistance by Nuhu Ribadu, the then powerful anti-corruption czar, against the former Rivers state governor on account of his putrid public service record, made Obasanjo to look in the direction of Jonathan who had just won the primaries to run as governor of Bayelsa state.It is believed that Obasanjo may have used his connection to work on the emirs to support Jonathan.And perhaps in their self interest, the emirs bought the plan.Emirs were an essential part of Obasanjo’s political forays into the North while he lasted as the civilian president.

But Obasanjo  is hugely unpopular among Northern elite who see him as a dangerous schemer.Some politicians have openly and secretly advised Jonathan to avoid any open alliance with Obasanjo if he wants to succeed.

Now some elite in the North who are aware of this latest twist are asking questions and they angrily feel the royal fathers may be subvert the interest of the zone.``What is unclear  to me is what interest  the traditional rulers seek to serve by endorsing Jonathan?’’asked a northerner. There is the feeling that this development must be handled carefully in order to avert political rebellion the moment once people ``learn that they have been sold out by their leaders. The northerners could be  dissenters they moment  think they have been short changed. In 2003 for example, the people of Kano openly rebelled against their highly venerated Emir Ado Bayero when he inadvertently endorsed the re-election of Obasanjo when it was still hotly disputed. The people of Kano then were sympathetic and indeed massively voted for Buhari but the Emir was mislead into congratulating Obasanjo in person in the presidential villa as part of the delegation of the state led by the then defeated governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.’’Such  bitter development may unfold if this issue is not handled well because Northern candidates appear very determined to carry on.All hands insiders ay must be on deck to avert a North –South division especially given the history of militancy in the Niger Delta.While some Northerners want o produce President, the Niger Delta elite are determined to have Jonathan as President and any attempt to edge out Jonathan sources say may have dire consequences

But Balarabe Musa former governor of Kaduna State and chieftain   of Peoples Redemption Party PRP,believes Jonathan should wait till 2015 in order to run. Said Balarabe :``I mean he(Jonathan) should not waste his time seeking for presidency in 2011 because he has a lot to do within this period of one year.If he should contest ,he will not concern himself with any other thing than his election.’’ In fact a new group appears to have emerged in the North now determined to ensure that the zoning formula of the PDP is adhered to and that the zone should produce the president in 2011.The group, Northern Elders Assembly met in Abuja recently and expressed their bitterness over the attempt to circumvent the zoning formula.They also appealed to the governors to ``demonstrate exemplary leadership in this crusade  and replicate the selfless and heroic sacrifices made by  some of their predecessors against Obasanjo’s attempt to elongate  his tenure’’The communiqué of the meeting was signed by Bashir Dalhatu, a former minister.The group’s meeting was chaired by Inuwa Wada.Others prominent members include  Bello Kirfi,,Tanko Yakassai,Hajiya Laila Dogonyaro,Umaru Baba, Senator Abubakar Mahdi and Sani Zangon Daura.The group noted among others that they are disturbed about the ``overwhelming and overbearing influence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo over President Goodluck Jonathan and his administration’’The group met last week with Senate President David Mark to express their views.They also indicated they would be meeting with other stakeholders including traditional rulers

But Chief Solomon Lar,former governor of Plateau state and first Chairman of the PDP said the zoning arrangement by the party was not meant to be a permanent affair.Aminu Bello Masari, former speaker House of Representatives believes Jonathan can run.

This magazine learnt that the traditional rulers have taken it upon themselves to share responsibilities.For instance a prominent emir in the North West zone has  taken  up the task of providing spiritual support to the Jonathan presidential bid next year. Part of this support is the provision of marabout and rubutu  (Arabic writings washed into a container or bottle for drinking) to ensure victory.It is not clear who will drink such rubutu.But aides of the emir in question according a report last week dismissed the allegation against him. He said these reports were the work of political detractors: an obvious sign that the emirs are beginning to also come under pressure from Pro-Northern agitators as well.

It is evident that any support for Jonathan from the royal fathers cannot be taken to mean support from the entire north as groups determined to ensure the region produces  the next president are equally up and doing. No one is certain yet about who will triumph in the end..