Ganging up to threaten Nigeria’s unity?

It has been an orchestrated battle aimed at intimidating all into submission. The old war horses who are determined to ride on the crest of zoning have perfected ways of making their points known to the point of overflowing as they insisted zoning must remain sacrosanct. The principal goal had been to evidently rattle and scare President Goodluck Jonathan out of the race. That was why  a day to the president’s formal declaration, the four aspirants for the office of president on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP chose to  release  what is generally viewed as their ‘strategic calculation’. According to them they have agreed to select a single candidate that will represent the north in the 2011 presidential election, which they hope they will win .General Aliyu Gusau’s campaign organization has lately revealed through his Director General Ben Obi that once a northern consensus candidate emerges, all others are to cooperate.

While they call it cooperation, the sympathizers of President Goodluck Jonathan see the move by the northern aspirants as a gang up against the president.’ It is a gang up.Yes, I know they have the constitutional right to gang up against the president but I am convinced they will fail. The reality on the ground does not favor their gang up’’, a Jonathan insider said. Sources in Goodluck Jonathan’s campaign say some credible polls have indicated that Jonathan is way ahead of all other aspirants. One of them said in fact even Nuhu Ribadu, the former Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, is rated higher than some these old war horses who want to climb back to power on the crest of zoning.

The men in this perceived gang-up include General Ibrahim Babangida, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, General Aliyu Gusau and Governor Bukola Saraki. What is common to all the aspirants is that everyone has his personal agenda to execute.IBB for instance seems to be desperately seeking  a second chance to rewrite the wrongs of his dictatorial past which was ignominiously crowned with the annulment of  June 12,1993 elections won by his friend MKO Abiola. The entire south west and the nation remain at sea over why such a credible election should be annulled. No cogent reason has been given yet. Neither has he been able to explain the riddle over the death of prominent journalist Dele Giwa. The  $12.4billion gulf oil windfall that remains unaccounted for remains a burden for him. Some observers say he  wants an opportunity to rewrite history. That is why he is hell bent on contesting

Atiku Abubakar the former vice president to President Olusegun Obasanjo seems equally propelled by his ambition .Though he is a renowned ‘fighter’ for democracy, as he took on Obasanjo in the fight against third term ,he too has amazingly joined this campaign against Jonathan which comes  as a shock to some of his friends in the minority zones. Atiku as he is called would always be the choice of the minority zone, an insider recently said. ``The snag is that there is President Jonathan who is the first time the minority ethnic nationalities are having an opportunity to test their true Nigerianness, and some of us expect Atiku and others to understand, shockingly he is moving along with IBB as if he has never had associates from the minority areas. The way these people are carry on is as if we are not Nigerians too’’a sympathizer to the president said, adding, ``that is why I think the president must not give up.’’

But Atiku seems undaunted by these sentiments as he has even reportedly threatened to go to court to stop Jonathan. He reportedly told BBC Hausa service that ``if he (Jonathan) insists on contesting , I think we will go to court  to seek interpretation  for us .It will be an affront and disrespectful to Northerners if President Jonathan is allowed to contest  in the 2011 polls against the zoning formula of the PDP `` Atiku said.

Of the lot, the story of General Gusau remains a puzzle .He is hardly seen by many. He comes out very rarely and he hardly makes public statements yet he wants to be president. Even worse, the man had insisted on contesting for election even while serving as national security adviser to Jonathan. He clearly tested Jonathan’s patience and it should be said that it is the president’s large heartedness that ensure that Gusau was not sacked with ignominy. Some of his ex-military associates would not have tolerated this behavior. Again, it is democracy.

In truth, reports said Gusau seemed frustrated by President Jonathan’s counter moves that rubbished his political calculations while serving as NSA. He was said to have seen as his return to the presidency as Jonathan’s NSA an opportunity for him to become vice president after the impasse over late President Yar’Adua’s ill-health. He was said to have felt very sad that Namadi Sambo emerged as vice president contrary to his expectations

.No one knows yet whether he actually lobbied Jonathan for the VP seat and whether Jonathan turned it down. But an insider said the man had underestimated Jonathan’s capacity for independent and firm judgement based on his own conviction.          Perhaps Jonathan’s far sightedness is working to his favour now because a decision to put Gusau as his vice president earlier would have complicated Jonathan’s declaration now. It is easy to surmise that Gusau may still be in the presidential race to settle scores with Jonathan. Interestingly he is also known to have scores to settle with IBB who, he feels, ought to leave the stage for his associates like himself now. But Gusau’s ambition too hangs in the balance as there are indications he may not be a front runner in the choice of the north

The case of Bukola Saraki remains a tale of the expected. He is known to have been eyeing the presidency long before now. His name was regularly mentioned in the days of the YarAdua crisis as one of those who would like to succeed the late president. His decision to throw his hat into the ring may be a betrayal of his friend ,the president whom the governors(that Saraki presided over as chairman of the Governors’ Forum) have at various times assured of their support. But some insiders say Saraki may be fighting a survival battle and he may be using the presidential gamble as a launch pad towards his yet to be revealed future schemes. Perhaps he wants federal presence in the next dispensation. Head or tail, history will record him as presidential aspirant and his associates say he will be content with that as he is most unlikely to emerge as the consensus candidate of the north.

Insiders have hinted earlier in the week that the group of northern presidential aspirants vying run on the platform of PDP would meet sometime within the week. The essence of their meeting is to harmonize their position on who will be to northern candidate. 'By the end of this week, the whole picture will be clearer' a source said.

It is expected that IBB, Gusau, Atiku Abubakar and Bukola Saraki or their representatives will be at the meeting. Gusau resigned from Goodluck Jonathan's government and expectedly picked the presidential nomination form on Monday. Jonathan’s men see this development as part of the desperation by the   aspirants upon their realization that they are fast losing out.IBB even made a quick dash to the east to meet with Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu in the  hope of convincing him to continue to support him. But some observers dismissed this move as virtually worthless.’ We have seen this before, Let me tell you, most of the states in the east have PDP governors and they will all work for Jonathan. Even Anambra which is ruled by APGA if you add up all the votes the PDP has an advantage there too, so IBB’s moves may not help him’ the observer said.

It was however also learnt that key northern leaders like MD Yusuf among others are expected at this meeting where the single northern candidate will emerge. Also it was gathered that Northern governors will be represented .A very reliable source said representatives of governors from the North West and north east will be at the harmonization meeting.

The four presidential aspirants from the north namely IBB,Atiku,Gusau and Saraki issued a statement last Friday saying they have agreed to pick a single candidate to represent the north for the PDP ticket. But given the assurances of support from PDP governors, most insiders say Jonathan has an advantage. Dalhatu Tafida, DG of Jonathan’s campaign, even boldly said a day before the president’s formal declaration that Northern delegates will massively endorse the president. This view was corroborated by former Senator Isaiah Balat a prominent Politician from Kaduna state as well.

Meanwhile all eyes are on the PDP to see how the battle for the party’s ticket will end. Many however believe the leaders ought to tread carefully in order not to further threaten the unity of the nation. The quest for power by one section of the country should not be pursued to the detriment of unity.

Evi-Koyi, a development analyst, wrote this piece from Abuja and can be reached on akpodogo@yahoo.com