Everyone shall taste death. And only on the Day of Resurrection shall you be paid your wages in full. And whoever is removed away from the Fire and admitted to Paradise, he indeed is successful. The life of this world is only the enjoyment of deception (a deceiving thing).
This is the verse of the holy Qur’an about death. So to any Muslim death is an inevitability.

 
It is so for Christians also. Hebrews chapter 9 vs 27 states: “Appointed for man to die once after this judgement.”

     Although modern science has made it possible for human beings to know when death will come, in some cases however, it has not been able to prevent this inevitability, this reality of life. The acceptance of this inevitability due not only to our beliefs but also to the stark empirical reality of it has no doubt influenced societies since time immemorial to design how their leaders should be replaced when they die or when they are incapacitated. There is hardly any constitution today which does not have provisions dealing with this eventuality. The Nigerian constitution is clear on this. However despite its clear provisions some forces in the corridors of power are cleverly trying to circumvent them. That could create the very chaos the provisions were designed to prevent.

There is no doubt that the sickness of our President has stimulated many speculations about the future of his presidency and the direction of the country. Maneuverings by major political actors, since it became known to the general public that the sickness of sickness of Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’adua is really serious and the revelations by doctors that it could lead to serious consequences if not properly treated has brought to the surface, one of the most fundamental aspects of Nigerian politics; the predictability of its unpredictability. Nigerian political actors try to do what would be unthinkable in many countries where state institutions are strong. Our investigations point to the unthinkable about to be enacted should the President become incapacitated or the inevitable happen. That is If some power brokers have their way.

On Saturday 28th November, the Punch newspaper published an article to the effect that Vice President Jonathan Goodluck was being pressurized to step down. According to the paper there was a plan “to create a situation where he would resign for the Senate President, David mark, to take over for three months and then organize elections, in the event that the President is unable to complete his term” And that“those who were mounting pressure on the Vice President to resign wanted to ensure that there was no loose ends. Specifically, ... the V.P was under pressure to sign an undated letter of resignation”

This news was swiftly denied by the Vice President through his Special Assistant Media. According to him, “The Vice President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is not under any pressure to resign. This wild and quite insulting claim requires no further elaboration. Certainly, the general public can discountenance such drivel”. The NTA the mouthpiece of the Federal Government of Nigeria followed suit.  That the NTA carried the denial indicates that something serious was happening which requires some investigation. As it is said, there is no smoke without fire.

Our investigations revealed that contrary to the denial that the Vice President was under pressure to resign there is indeed an iota of truth in the story but not what the Punch published.  The Punch story was either a decoy or a ploy intended to stimulate anti-north hatred and even attacks in the Niger-Delta. What is happening is the beginning of a power struggle in anticipation of the total incapacitation of President Umaru Yar’Adua? Should it occur, the Vice President would, according to the provisions of the constitution become the President. But the power brokers around President Yar’Adua are saying that they would not accept Vice President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.  They argue that Vice President Goodluck was a light weight in Nigerian politics plucked from the University of Port Harcourt where he was teaching botany by Diepreye Alamieyesiegha to become the Deputy Governor of Bayelsa State. He picked such a light weight in order to have free reign. No, Nigerian governor desires a strong deputy. It was only by a dint of good luck and the political and legal thuggery of General Olusegun Obasanjo that he became the governor of the state and later propelled onto the national scene as Vice President against the wishes of prominent Niger Delta politicians, by the same General Obasanjo, in an election widely judged to be the worse in the history of the country. These power brokers also argue that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan did not in any substantial way contribute, financially or otherwise, in bringing President Umaru Yar’ Adua and himself to power. Therefore he cannot reap what he did not sow.

Our investigations revealed that Chief James Ibori who has considerable influence on Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua because of the role he played in his election and Dr Bukola Saraki, the Governor of Kwara State, the Chair of the Governors Forum, who has been having greater visibility in Aso Rock in recent times, are the major actors in this power struggle. Some of the officials around President Yar’Adua have become helpless in the perceived emerging situation as their influence is linked to his remaining in power. The Ibori-Saraki plan appears simple but could unravel with serious consequences. But some power hungry politicians could be reckless. In case President Yar’Adua becomes incapacitated, they will delay its announcement and then force the Vice President to resign. Immediately he resigns Chief James Ibori’s name will be forwarded to the National Assembly for approval, as the choice of President Yar’Adua for the office of Vice President. Every political arsenal would be marshalled to get the National Assembly to approve his nomination. Once it is done and he is sworn in, the Presidents incapacitation would be announced. Chief Ibori will according to section 146(1) of the Constitution become the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He will in turn “confer” with the P.D.P and nominate Dr Bukola Saraki as the new Vice President. Once Bukola Saraki’s nomination is approved by both Houses of Assembly in accordance with Section 146 (3) of the Constitution, the duo will then shift their attention to the Senate with the aim of forcing its President, David Mark out of office and replace him with his arch rival, George Akume, the former governor of Benue State. The Ministry of Justice headed by Mike Aondoakaa, whose appointment as the Minister of Justice, was influenced by George Akume, is expected to play a major role.

For Chief Ibori the success of this plan would give him automatic immunity from prosecution over the pending cases against him in courts both in Nigeria and outside. It would also put him in a vantage position, given the powers of the presidency and the weakness so far exhibited by the opposition, to ensure that he gets another four year term come 2011. This is all the more so because, as it appears, there is no desire on the part of the PDP, the governors and majority of the members of the National Assembly to reform the electoral system as contained in the report of the Electoral Reform Committee chaired by Justice Uwais. This is mainly because the latter are the beneficiaries of the large scale rigging in the previous elections which the reform seeks to address. Evidence abound to suggest that rigging would repeat itself come 2011 elections. For Bukola Saraki he would be in a better position to compete for the Presidency when James Ibori would have successfully finished his tenure. Given the zoning formula of the PDP that zoned the office of the President to the North-West this time, Saraki’s ambition may raise a serious question as to whether the politicians from the zone would be comfortable with it. This is for the simple reason that Yar’adua’s brief spell of roughly two years may be seen as inadequate.

As for the plan itself, it is based on the faulty assumption that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is politically weak and does not have a strong base even in his geo-political zone, the South-South, and that the people of the zone would be glad to have an Ibori as a president on their behalf. But should Vice President Goodluck Jonathan refuse to resign, the only option left to these power hungry politicians would be to impeach him. He can forestall this attempt by going into alliance with other available and willing forces within the National Assembly. And even if the improbable happens and he accepts to resign there is no guarantee that the National Assembly would approve the nomination of James Ibori as the Vice President in anticipation of taking over the Presidency. In any case while the choice of the Vice President will be made in the National Assembly the actual decision as to whether Ibori’s nomination scales through or not would involve powerful political forces outside the National Assembly.
 
Similarly, this Ibori-Saraki conundrum plan is based on the assumption that they could put a lid on the incapacitation of the President for a long time.  However, this possibility is very slim as both Nigerian and many foreign intelligence agencies would know and share information which may leak to both the Nigerian and world press. Even major Nigerian political actors would be sniffing for information. And should the ultimate incapacitation occur the Saudi authority may be left with no option other than to release information.  Even if any of the above scenarios about the future of the Yar’Adua presidency is correct, it would therefore appear that there is little or no time left to compel Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to resign.
 
Furthermore, the plan presupposes that other forces within and outside the National Assembly are disinterested in the Vice presidency and ultimately the presidency. This may not be the case as other terribly powerful political forces may equally be interested and may make bold attempt to capture it.  As mentioned earlier the only predictable factor about Nigeria politics is its unpredictability.   

Abubakar Siddique Mohammed,
Director, Centre for Democratic Development Research and Training,
Zaria.